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Monat: Januar 2021

Bitcoin ownership as safe as bonds and gold

Anthony Scaramucci: Bitcoin ownership as safe as bonds and gold

SkyBridge Capital’s Scaramucci has launched a new bitcoin fund. He says better infrastructure and regulation will make BTC investments as safe as bonds and gold.

Anthony Scaramucci, the chief executive of SkyBridge Capital and former White House communications director, believes the value proposition of Bitcoin (BTC) has increased significantly now Bitcoin System that governments have reduced many of the risks associated with the digital asset.

In an opinion piece on CNN, Scaramucci and his SkyBridge colleague Brett Messing explained that Bitcoin has become a practical option for long-term investors looking to protect themselves from inflation. The authors also claim that holding Bitcoin today is far less risky than it was a few years ago.

Back then, they say, regulations and infrastructure were still underdeveloped

Bitcoin’s growth has „prompted governments and institutions to step in and reduce many of the risks associated with the digital currency,“ the authors said. They were referring to the US monetary regulator, which allowed banks to offer cryptocurrency services.

They went on to say:

„[…] „Increased regulation, improved infrastructure and access to financial institutions, such as Fidelity, that hold investors‘ money have made bitcoin investments as safe as bonds and other commodities, such as gold, which are also used to diversify portfolios.“

SkyBridge Capital made a big splash last month when it filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for approval of a bitcoin hedge fund. The SkyBridge Bitcoin Fund LP came to market a few weeks later. Fidelity acted as custodian and Ernst & Young provided auditing services.

SkyBridge invested in Bitcoin in November and December, building a large position with the digital asset even before its parabolic rise. When the fund was launched on 4 January, SkyBridge claimed that the Bitcoins it owned were worth about US$310 million.

Institutional capital was a key catalyst behind bitcoin’s 2020 rally, in which it surged 300 per cent to reach a new all-time high of US$42,000 on 8 January. So-called smart money investors are beginning to view Bitcoin as a form of digital gold. The increase in value can be much higher than with precious metals.

Anonymer Investor: Holen Sie sich Bitcoin, wenn es kein großer Diskussionsfaktor ist

Bitcoin boomt in letzter Zeit, aber laut einem Investor, der anonym bleiben möchte, ist dies nicht der beste Zeitpunkt, um zu kaufen.

Anonymer Investor: Kaufen Sie Bitcoin, wenn die Leute nicht darüber sprechen

Auf den ersten Blick kann man verstehen, woher diese Worte kommen. Wenn sich etwas beschleunigt, als gäbe es kein Morgen, ist die natürliche Idee, dass der Vermögenswert wahrscheinlich irgendwann in der Zukunft einbrechen wird. Das wäre wahrscheinlich der beste Zeitpunkt, um zu kaufen, wenn man bedenkt, dass man es zu einem geringeren Preis bekommen kann.

Laut dem anonymen Investor geht es jedoch etwas tiefer. Letztendlich ist der beste Zeitpunkt für den Kauf von Bitcoin Profit, wenn niemand darüber spricht, was angesichts der hohen Google-Suche nach Bitcoin in letzter Zeit offensichtlich nicht der Fall wäre .

Der Investor – angeblich aus Manila auf den Philippinen – behauptet, einer der frühesten Anwender der Währung zu sein. In einem Interview erklärt er:

Die beste Zeit, um Bitcoin zu kaufen, ist, wenn Blut auf der Straße ist, alle in Panik geraten und niemand darüber spricht.

Der Inhaber kaufte im Jahr 2013 ungefähr zweieinhalb Bitcoins. Der Kauf wurde mit lokalen Bitcoins zu einem Zeitpunkt getätigt, als jede Einheit ungefähr 100 US-Dollar kostete. Es wird daher geschätzt, dass der betreffende Investor insgesamt rund 250 USD ausgegeben hat. Dies war zu einer Zeit, als Bitcoin nicht die Aufmerksamkeit hatte, die es heute besitzt, und angesichts der vielen Diskussionen um die weltweit führende digitale Währung glaubt der Investor, dass sich möglicherweise eine Blase bildet.

Darüber hinaus hat Bitcoin im letzten Jahr eine neue Form angenommen, da viele Einzelpersonen die Währung nicht mehr als rein spekulativen Vermögenswert, sondern als Absicherungsinstrument betrachten. Ein Vorrat an Reichtum oder Produkten, der in Zeiten von Konflikten möglicherweise das eigene Geld schützen kann.

Der Investor stimmt diesem Gefühl nicht zu und behauptet, dass es immer noch zu viel Ignoranz in Bezug auf die Technologie und den Hintergrund von Bitcoin gibt. Er sagt, dass Bitcoin ohne eine angemessene Ausbildung in den Köpfen der Menschen niemals etwas anderes als ein spekulativer Gegenstand sein wird.

Er kommentiert:

Die Leute vergessen, dass dies nicht die erste Blase ist. Bis die Leute die Technologie verstehen, wird es immer ein spekulativer Vermögenswert sein … Wenn niemand es anfassen will, dann kaufen Sie es. Nicht wenn Leute darüber reden.

Er behauptet, er habe eine etwas negative Geschichte mit der Münze gehabt, nachdem er ungefähr 16 Einheiten BTC im Mt. verloren hatte. Gox-Katastrophe von 2014. Er gibt auch an, dass alle Analysten, die behaupten, Bitcoin könnte in Zukunft einen sechsstelligen Wert erreichen, ihre BTC-Lagerbestände heimlich verkaufen und möglicherweise die Öffentlichkeit irreführen.

Bitcoin whales benefit from „weak hands“ in the BTC bull run

Bitcoin is being bought up by „millionaires“ more and more, as data shows.

Bitcoin ( BTC ) is quickly being bought up by the whales after falling to $ 32,000. This means that only millionaires benefit from the decline, as data shows.

Glassnode wallet balance statistics on Jan. 11 show that investors who buy the decline have more than 1,000 BTC ($ 36 million) in their possession.

„Millionaire“ wallets continue to grow

Elias Simos, a protocol specialist at the blockchain infrastructure provider Bison Trails, has compiled these statistics. The numbers suggest that the wealthy benefited from Bitcoin sales by smaller investors in December and January.

„Addresses with more than $ 1,000 BTC continue to grow with the help of everyone else. This is also the case in this downturn,“ summarizes Simos.

„While you were selling, whales devoured your bitcoin.“

The number of wallets with smaller holdings declined as the BTC / USD pair climbed from $ 19,000 on December 1 to its recent highs of $ 42,000. The group with 1,000 and more BTC, however, has grown.

So the effect is that weak hands sell to strong hands. And the richer the organization behind it, the stronger the hands.

„Do not participate in the #BTC transfer to billionaires, corporations and hedge funds. At least not yet,“ warned entrepreneur Alistair Milne his Twitter followers in response to Simo’s post.

Guggenheim hints at BTC sale

Institutional purchases have become more common in Bitcoin in recent months. However, analysts expressed concern that one of them had shown signs of „weak hands“.

As Cointelegraph reported , Guggenheim Partners is apparently already planning to sell some bitcoins. The company announced in late November that it had invested a substantial amount in Bitcoin . Investment director Scott Minerd said Monday that Bitcoin’s decline over the weekend gave cause for reconsideration.

„Bitcoin’s parabolic surge is unsustainable in the short term,“ he wrote . „Vulnerable to a setback.“

„The targeted technical plus of 35,000 US dollars has been exceeded. Time to take some money out again.“
His statements confused market participants. The reason for this decision was questioned in the reactions , as Guggenheim had only got on board a few weeks earlier.

„Investment manager of a large company that trades in BTC every day? Should last at least 5-10 years,“ argued macro investor Dan Tapeiro.

Institutional acceptance comes amid a general lack of supply for Bitcoin. The demand from large buyers is already exceeding the monthly production capacity of the miners. At the same time, the miners have sold more in the last few days. According to one theory, some of them cash out their well-deserved winnings at or near all-time highs.

What does the implied volatility difference between Ethereum and Bitcoin indicate?

The difference between the implied volatility of ETH and Bitcoin (BTC) may be giving us indications of where the market will go soon.

To begin with, while BTC has taken off, Ethereum is relatively undervalued and other alternative cryptosystems. We can confirm this by analyzing the difference between the six-month implied volatility levels for both cryptom currencies.

When analyzing the general panorama of the cryptomarket we will see some interesting changes in the last months. The most evident is the increase in the price of some cryptosystems such as Crypto Code however we cannot lose sight of the options market. Right now, the option market is signaling an imminent change in market focus. Here are the details.

This indicator has risen to a record 46%. This exceeds the previous peak of 45% observed on February 21, 2020, according to data provider Skew. The three- and six-month spreads have risen to an 11-month high of 32% and 23%, respectively.
One-month implied volatility differential of Ethereum – Bitcoin Source: SkewOne-month implied volatility differential of Ethereum – Bitcoin Source: Skew

Bitcoin continues its historical career, what has driven it?

Analyzing these differential levels of implied volatility between Ethereum and Bitcoin

Implied volatility is the market’s expectation of how risky or volatile an asset would be during a specific period. It is driven by net option buying pressure and historical price volatility.

Ethereum (ETH) is the second largest crypt currency by market value, and many other so-called altcoins are based on Ethereum’s blockchain technology. As such, alternative crypt currencies tend to trade in line with ETH.

The widening of implied volatility spreads indicates that the market expects ETH and other alternative currencies to plot larger percentage movements than Bitcoin in the short term.

„Traders expect higher volatility of ETH relative to Bitcoin,“ said Skew’s CEO, Emmanuel Goh, in an interview. „This is consistent with a declining correlation and a surge of interest in alternative cryptomonics.

Some may argue that the implied volatility reflects investors‘ expectations of price turbulence and may not be reflected in the charts in the future. However, historical data shows that implied volatility spreads are reliable indicators of upcoming market changes.
What can you expect in the short term?

The one-month spread has increased fivefold since December 30, along with an increasingly weak positive correlation between ETH and Bitcoin.

According to Skew, the three-month correlation has decreased from 67% to 56% in the last five days to reach the lowest level since March 2018. It seems that the trend will continue, as suggested by the widening of implied volatility spreads.

While the widening of the volatility spread implies room for relatively larger percentage movements in altcoins, it tells us nothing about the direction of the movements.

That said, alternative crypt currencies now appear cheap compared to BTC and the market is extremely optimistic. Therefore, altcoins may soon be registering larger percentage gains than Bitcoin itself.